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How income investors can avoid falling returns on cash

Being proactive in adjusting portfolios can help investors to meet their income needs even as the environment for cash becomes less attractive.

October 17, 2024

24 mins

by:

Audrey Goh Senior Cross Asset Strategist, Wealth Management Group

Wealth & retail bankingWealth insights
Wealth Insights: How income investors can avoid falling returns on cash

As the Federal Reserve shifts from raising rates to cutting them, income-focused investors are facing a key challenge: how to deal with falling returns on cash? Following September’s rate cut, the Fed’s first in over four years, expectations are growing that policy rates will decline further, potentially dropping below 3.5% by the end of 2025. This signals lower future yields for cash-like investments, such as 1-3-month US Treasury bills, which closely follow Fed rates. For investors who rely on regular interest payment as a source of income, this environment presents a dilemma, as reinvestment risks become more prominent. The challenge is clear: when existing short-term securities mature, reinvesting at lower rates will yield diminishing returns.

A steepening yield curve reduces cash’s appeal

Another important factor for income investors to consider is the changing shape of the yield curve. During periods of Fed rate cuts, short-term yields tend to decline faster than longer-term ones, causing the yield curve to steepen. While an inverted yield curve – typically seen during Fed rate hiking cycles, wherein short-term yields exceed long-term ones – often supports higher cash returns, this situation reverses as the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens. Historically, cash returns have fallen sharply following the dis-inversion of the yield curve as the Fed cuts rates, diminishing the appeal of cash.

Cash yields, which closely track the Fed Funds rate, are now expected to fall as the Fed cuts rates Cash returns tend to decline sharply after the yield curve “dis-inverts” and as the Fed cuts rates
US cash yield vs the market’s and Fed’s projections of Fed Funds rate* Annualized total returns on US cash during periods of yield curve inversions and Fed easing cycles
Wealth Insights: How income investors can avoid falling returns on cash - chart 1 Wealth Insights: How income investors can avoid falling returns on cash - chart 2

*Yields and returns based on the Bloomberg US 1-3-month Treasury Bill Total Returns Index. Market pricing of Fed Funds rate based on Fed Fund futures as of 20 September 2024. Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, Standard Chartered

How can income investors respond?

When faced with declining yields on cash investments, income-focused investors need to adapt strategies that preserves their income streams while managing risks. One way to maintain stable returns in a falling rate environment is to reallocate from cash into assets that provide better yield opportunities and protect against reinvestment risks. Here are some approaches to consider:

1. Reallocate to longer-dated bonds

One strategy is to reallocation from short-term cash instruments, like Treasury bills into longer-dated securities such as government or corporate bonds with longer maturities. Historically, longer-dated bonds offer higher yields compared to short-term cash instruments especially when the yield curve steepens, which typically occurs during a Fed rate cutting cycle. As the spread between short-term and long-term yield increases, locking in higher yields through longer-dated bonds can provide more stable income over time and mitigate the risk of reinvesting at lower rates. Moreover, longer-dated bonds, particularly those issued by government and high-quality companies, tend to appreciate in value as interest rates fall, creating a potential for capital gains in addition to providing a steady income stream. This makes them an attractive option for income-focused investors looking to balance return and risk during periods of declining short-term rates.

2. Diversify into a Multi-Asset Income (MAI) portfolio

A more comprehensive approach to managing falling cash returns is to build or invest in a Multi-Asset income portfolio. The advantage of a MAI portfolio lies in its diversification across asset classes that generate income, including high-dividend yielding equities, longer-dated bonds and sometimes even alternative assets such as real estate investment trusts (REITS) and preferred stocks. The combination of high-dividend yielding equities and bonds offers a balanced risk-return profile. Dividend-paying stocks provide regular income distribution, along with the potential for capital gains, which can help offset the impact of falling bond yields. Equity sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare are often strong candidates for reliable dividend income, especially in time of economic uncertainty or falling rates. These sectors also tend to show resilience during downturns, making them ideal for maintaining income stability.

Technology sector equities have outperformed during past easing cycles, but consumer staples and healthcare sectors have historically offered protection during easing and economic hard landings

Average US equity sector excess returns (relative to the S&P 500) in the last five Fed easing cycles

Wealth Insights: How income investors can avoid falling returns on cash - chart 3

In terms of bonds, an MAI portfolio typically focuses on longer duration bonds that offer higher yields than cash. As bond prices tend to rise when yields fall, these bonds provide a hedge against declining interest rates while delivering steady income. By spreading investments across multiple income generating assets, an MAI portfolio reduces the risk of relying too heavily on any single asset class. This diversification also provides more consistent returns in face of interest rate volatility, ensuring that investors have a stable income source even as cash yields fall.

3. Use a ‘laddering’ strategy

A bond ‘laddering’ strategy is another way to manage reinvestment risk and ensure consistent income. With a ladder, investors spread their bond investments across different maturities, purchasing bonds that mature at regular intervals. This allows them to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds into new ones, while maintaining exposure to varying yields. In a falling-rate environment, this strategy can smooth out the impact of declining yields by locking in higher rates on longer-dated bonds early on, while still allowing for liquidity as bonds mature. For income investors, bond ladders provide a mix of both short- and long-term bonds, creating a steady flow of income while reducing the risks associated with market timing.

Positioning for income stability

For income-focused investors, responding to falling cash returns during a Fed rate cutting cycle requires a shift away from relying too heavily on cash or short-term instruments. Instead, reallocating to longer-dated bonds, diversifying into MAI portfolios, or using strategies like bond ‘laddering’ can help preserve stable income. These approaches not only provide higher yields in a steepening yield curve environment but also protect against the risk of reinvesting at lower returns as cash yields fall. By proactively adjusting portfolios now, investors can ensure they continue to meet their income needs even as the environment for cash becomes less attractive.

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