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A potential turnaround for Chinese equities in 2024?

Wealth Insights: A potential turnaround for Chinese equities in 2024?

Audrey Goh Senior Cross Asset Strategist, Wealth Management Group

29 Feb 2024

Home > News > Wealth & retail banking > Wealth insights > A potential turnaround for Chinese equities in 2024?

China’s equity markets have been volatile this year. The Shanghai Composite Index started the year with a wobble, down as much as 9 per cent at one point as investors grew increasingly pessimistic on the outlook of China. Since February, however, a series of measures has sparked hopes that the pain threshold for policymakers has finally been reached. State-controlled entities have been aggressively buying stocks, restrictions on stock sales have been imposed and the head of the Securities Regulatory Commission has been replaced. Domestic equities in turn rebounded, rising 11 per cent from its trough in January. Could this be the start of a significant turnaround?

The growth disconnect

Despite China’s impressive economic growth, a structural dilemma persists: the strong economic growth has not translated into corporate earnings growth (which is crucial for equity investors) over the past decade. According to Emerging Advisors Group, China’s headline GDP has risen seven-fold in nominal terms since the early 2000s. So did corporate earnings. However, earnings per share increased by a mere 50 per cent over the past decade. The discrepancy can be explained by extensive, sustained equity dilution which has led to lacklustre long-term returns for equity shareholders despite a robust economic growth and profit environment. As a result, investors have started questioning the long-term structural case for Chinese equities.

Valuation rollercoaster

The good news is that valuation is cheap. However, valuation by itself is often a poor indicator of what might happen in the next few weeks or months. China’s domestic A-shares market has a high proportion of individual investors, who often trade based on sentiment and technical factors, rather than fundamentals. As a result, China equities often experience wild swings, both in price and valuation multiples. For example, the price-earnings ratio of A-shares more than halved within a year between 2007-2008, 2009-2010 and 2015-2016. Similarly, it more than doubled over the periods between 2008-2009 and 2014-2015. Things are less extreme in the overseas-listed MSCI China index, but one could easily see 100 per cent returns over a year or two due to wild swings, despite the structural drag of declining earnings per share. Currently, both the A-share market and the MSCI China index are trading at the lower end of their historical valuation range, given the poor sentiment. As a result, equities appear cheap, even on a growth-adjusted or earnings-adjusted basis.

Wealth Insights: A potential turnaround for Chinese equities in 2024?

Limited correlation between macro variables and China equities

Unlike the Developed markets, China equities often exhibit limited or no correlation to traditional economic cycles, which makes it difficult to forecast or predict returns. For example, the strong upswing in equity markets during 1999 -2000 and 2006-2007 coincided with economic upturns, but the sharp rallies during 2009 and 2014-2015 all occurred during downturns in economic activity.

Authorities have taken steps to reverse the prevailing negative sentiment to improve the performance of China equities on a sustained basis, but the market awaits further catalysts. The upcoming National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting could be one potential catalyst. This meeting sets the tone for China’s economic and policy direction for the year and will be closely watched for signs of more forceful policy support for the economy. Depending on the approach by policymakers, it could potentially bring forth a sustained bottoming in China equities.

Potential measures from NPC meeting and market implications

Higher probability: If authorities perceived the problem as one of depressed business/consumer confidence

Potential measures

Market Implications

Low probability: If problem is seen as one of balance sheet recession and debt deflation

Potential measures

Market Implications

So where does that leave us with investing in China?

Instead of trying to second guess policy makers, investors may consider leveraging market momentum to determine when interest may be returning to China’s equity markets in the short-term. After all, financial markets operate in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. Higher prices lead more investors to enter the market, which pushes prices higher. For instance, in the past 20 years, a one-month gain in the CSI 300 in excess of 20 per cent has led to even greater returns in the subsequent six months, 75 per cent of the time. Additionally, the bar for positive surprises today is very low, given China’s extreme valuations discount relative to history and developed market peers.

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