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- North America
- Europe ex-UK
- United Kingdom (UK)
- Japan
- Asia ex-Japan
- DM IG Government bonds
- DM IG Corporate bonds
- DM HY Corporate bonds
- EM USD Government bonds
- EM LCY Government bonds
- Asia USD bonds
- Crude Oil
- Gold
- We retain a core holding (Neutral) on global equities and expect them to perform in line with bonds and outperform cash. We are Overweight US equities, underpinned by our expectation that Fed rate cuts will achieve a soft-landing for the US economy. We expect US outperformance to be driven by its accelerating earnings growth heading in 2025. A cooling labour market and the US elections in November are near-term risks to the market.
- We see UK equities as a core holding (Neutral) with an attractive dividend yield and valuation discount, alongside improving economic data. UK equities offer a defensive sector composition but the lack of growth sectors could limit outperformance. We are Underweight Europe ex-UK equities amid a deteriorating earnings outlook, despite cheap valuations.
- Asia ex-Japan equities are a core holding (Neutral). Within the region, we are Overweight India equities, supported by rapid economic growth and robust net inflows from foreign investors. China equities are a core holding (Neutral) for us with ongoing policy easing measures likely to help moderate concerns about economic growth in China. We downgrade South Korea equities to Underweight as price momentum has been poor amid market concerns about its significant exposure to weak demand for memory semiconductor chips. Japan equities are a core holding (Neutral). We are encouraged by improving share buybacks and the reflationary environment, although the transition to a new prime minister could result in some uncertainty.
The bullish case:
- Tailwinds from a soft-landing scenario
- Broadening earnings growth
- Technology sector propelling performance
The bearish case:
- Overconcentration on Magnificent 7
- Macro uncertainties: e.g., US election
- Expensive valuations. Elevated positioning
The bullish case:
- Appealing corporates’ buyback & dividend
- Cheap valuations
- Loosening policies from the ECB
The bearish case:
- Deteriorating earnings outlook
- Increasing geopolitical tensions
- Slump in economic sentiment
The bullish case:
- High dividend yield; Cheap valuations
- Relatively defensive sectors
- Recovery in economic data
The bearish case:
- Weak earnings growth expected in 2024
- Light in growth sectors
- Economic rebound may not sustain
The bullish case:
- Rising share buybacks and dividends
- Rising ROE from corporate reforms
- Further improvement in earnings outlook
The bearish case:
- Foreign net inflows decelerating
- Rebound in JPY to hurt company earnings
- Exposed to global cyclical slowdown
The bullish case:
- China’s fiscal and monetary stimulus
- Higher EPS growth projected in 2024
- Attractive valuations; Low positioning
The bearish case:
- Soft survey data and economic activities
- Lack of confidence from investors
- Intensification of geopolitical tensions
- We maintain a balanced allocation between government bonds (rates) and corporate/Emerging Market bonds (credits). We anticipate the Fed will further cut rates over the next 12 months, providing potential for capital gains from softer yields.
- Developed Market (DM) Investment Grade (IG) government bonds remain a core holding (Neutral). We expect the US 10-year government bond yield to be range-bound between 3.50-3.75%, albeit with a rise towards 4% possible in the short term.
- DM IG corporate bonds are now a core holding (Neutral) alongside DM High Yield (HY) corporate bonds. Although yield premiums are tight from a historical perspective, strong fundamentals and our expectation of a US soft-landing support their valuations, in our view.
- EM USD government bonds are reduced to a core holding (Neutral) alongside EM local currency government bonds. Rising geopolitical risks ahead of the US election, and the risk of falling industrial commodity prices, are balanced bysupportive fiscal and external fundamentals and fair valuations relative to history.
- We maintain a core holding (Neutral) view on Asia USD bonds, with a balanced view between Asia IG and HY.
The bullish case:
- DM central banks’ pivot
- Attractive yield compared to own history
The bearish case:
- A shorter than expected loosening cycle
- Unfavourable supply-demand balance
The bullish case:
- High rate sensitivity (long duration) a positive from falling interest rates
- Attractive yield compared to own history
The bearish case:
- Relatively tight yield premium
- Weakening credit fundamentals
The bullish case:
- Lower interest rate eases refinancing pressure
- Attractive yield on offer
The bearish case:
- Rating downgrade risk
- Default risks
The bullish case:
- High rate sensitivity (long duration) a positive from falling interest rates
- Stronger commodity prices
The bearish case:
- Commodity price disinflation
- Geopolitical risk amid US election
The bullish case:
- Supportive EM currency outlook
- High EM monetary policy flexibility
The bearish case:
- Unfavourable yield differentials with DM
- Rate cut expectation is in the price
The bullish case:
- Regional growth well-supported
- Rising investor positioning
The bearish case:
- Soft China economic growth outlook
- Defaults or bond restructuring risk
- We raise our 3- and 12-month gold price forecast to USD 2,600/oz and USD 2,800/oz, respectively, while retaininggold as an Overweight relative to equities, bonds and cash. Gold prices charged higher to new all-time highs in September as the Fed commenced its rate cutting cycle with a jumbo 50bps cut. While expectations of Fed and other central bank rate cuts may be largely priced into the market, they could still provide some boost to gold prices when implemented. Consequently, global gold ETF inflows would also enjoy an uplift. Robust official sector purchases have been a strong anchor of demand in the recent years. The latest Q2 data continued to reflect that – central bank purchases in the first half of this year are the largest since the turn of the century. Given the structural nature of central banks’ demand, we see that sustaining heading into 2025.
- We lower our 12-month WTI oil forecast to USD 70/bbl on rising growth and supply risks. Crude oil prices slumped this month, driven by growing demand concerns amid a slew of soft data and pessimistic outlook. Concurrently, positioning has declined to a near-record short. While our base case is not a recession, we believe the global economy could cool further, weighing on oil demand. The demand-supply balance is likely to turn to a surplus, especially as the OPEC+ begins its recently delayed tapering plan in December. Reports of Saudi Arabia shifting from targeting price to market share is also an upside risk to supply. In the near term, we see WTI oil trading at around USD 70/bbl, albeit with some volatility. Firstly, the extreme bearish oil position is prone to a reversal. Secondly, geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could escalate. Thirdly, the new agreement between rival Libyan factions to appoint a new central bank governor may see more than 500kb/d of supply returning to market.
The bullish case:
- A normalisation in Fed rates
- Escalation of geopolitical tensions
- Safe-haven bids
- Reserve diversification for central banks
- Strong central bank and physical demand
- USD weakness
- ETF inflows
The bearish case:
- Rising real yields increase opportunity costs of holding gold
- Geopolitical risk premium tends to be short-lived
- USD strength
- Risk-on sentiment
- Demanding valuations
- Stretched bullish positioning
The bullish case:
- Resilient global economies
- Supply disruptions
- Geopolitical risk premium
- Low inventories
- US shale underinvestment
- US SPR refill
- Extreme bearish positioning
The bearish case:
- Tight monetary policies; growth slowdown
- Redirection of Russian oil flows
- Significant global spare capacity
- OPEC+ supply hikes and discipline
- Lower demand from energy transition
- Elevated non-OPEC supply
The bullish case:
- Diversifier characteristics
The bearish case:
- Equity, corporate bond volatility
- Our Multi-Asset Income (MAI) strategy has delivered strong returns of 5.8% over the most recent three months ended 26 September 2024. Returns picked up since the start of the third quarter on the back of Fed’s easing expectations, driving a broad-based rally in both bond and equity markets. The performance of high-dividend equities caught up, after languishing for much of the year behind global equities, as investors grew more confident of a soft-landing to broaden out from tech-heavy global equities into high-dividend equities. Our MAI model now yields c.5.8%, dipping below the 6% mark for the first time this year.
- MAI yield down slightly (5.6% as of 31 August 2024), but total return prospects still compelling against cash. The Fed’s recent outsized 50bps cut should help the case for a US economic soft-landing, benefitting dividend equities and rate-sensitive assets such as infrastructure equities, REITs and bonds within the MAI strategy. Historically, easing cycles during soft-landing episodes tend to be supportive of both credit and bonds. The MAI strategy, with an almost 60% allocation to rate sensitive assets, is well-positioned to benefit from the Fed easing cycle. With cash yields likely to continue declining (see page 9), income strategies can offer an attractive alternative given their better return and yield potential.
- USD
- EUR
- JPY
- GBP
- AUD
- ASIA EX-JAPAN
+ US fundamentals surprise on the upside
– Dovish Fed, expensive valuation
+ ECB unlikely to cut rate aggressively
– Slower growth relative to US
+ BoJ policy normalisation pace is slow
– Further BoJ rate hikes, surge in QT size
+ BoE cautious approach amid inflation uptick
– Recession risk, consumption weakness
+ RBA holds rates for longer, strong gold prices
– China’s modest recovery
The bullish case:
+ SGD vulnerable to weak global growth
+ Revaluation of S$NEER
The bearish case:
– Resilient domestic growth
– CNH’s rebound
USD/INR
The bullish case:
+ RBI to continue to absorb capital inflows
+ Further strengthening in FX reserves
The bearish case:
– Lower oil price to ease current account deficit
– Strong growth; inflows
USD/MYR
The bullish case:
+ BNM is likely to reduce its record-high forward sales
+ Replenish FX reserves
The bearish case:
– Reversal in local dollarization trends
– Resilient GDP growth
USD/KRW
The bullish case:
+ Vulnerability to global growth and trade
+ Reliance on USD and CNH trend
The bearish case:
– Export growth and tourism inflows
– Cheap value; inflows
Standard Chartered India Money Insights
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The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.