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1 November 2024

Global Market Outlook

Global Market Outlook

Balancing election risks with soft-landing prospects

Financial markets have thus far been unfazed by US election risks. We continue to believe elections can create opportunities amid short-term volatility, but our soft-landing macro view points to medium-term outperformance of risk assets.


The recent rebound in US government bond yields presents an opportunity to lock in an attractive income as major central banks continue to cut rates, lowering returns on cash. Additionally, we remain Overweight gold relative to other major asset classes as strong geopolitical tailwinds remain intact.


Within equities, we continue to prefer the US over other major regions. Within Asia, Chinese equities have room to benefit from any further policy stimulus near term, but significant fiscal support is likely necessary for sustained gains. Instead, we retain an Overweight on Indian equities given greater growth visibility over the longer term.

Strategy

Investment strategy and key themes

Steve Brice

Global Chief Investment Officer

Manpreet Gill

Chief Investment Officer, AMEE

Raymond Cheng

Chief Investment Officer, North Asia

Our top preferences

Foundation Allocations

  • OW gold, N equities/bonds
  • In equities: OW US

Opportunistic Allocations

Equity BUY ideas

  • US technology, communication, healthcare sectors, large banks
  • India large cap equities
  • China non-financial divi SOEs
  • Hang Seng technology sector

Bond BUY ideas

  • Europe govt. bonds (FX-hedged)
  • INR local currency bonds
  • US Agency MBS
  • Global convertible bonds
  • US 20-year+ government bond

FX views

  • Modestly stronger USD

Elections risks vs. soft-landing prospects

  • Financial markets have thus far been unfazed by US election risks. We continue to believe elections can create opportunities amid short-term volatility, but our soft-landing macro view points to medium-term outperformance of risk assets.
  • The recent rebound in US government bond yields presents an opportunity to lock in an attractive income as major central banks continue to cut rates, lowering returns on cash. Additionally, we remain Overweight gold relative to other major asset classes as strong geopolitical tailwinds remain intact.
  • Within equities, we continue to prefer the US over other major regions. Within Asia, Chinese equities have room to benefit from any further policy stimulus near term, but significant fiscal support is likely necessary for sustained gains. Instead, we retain an Overweight on Indian equities given greater long-term growth visibility.

It’s the festive season for markets

While much has been written about the risks posed by the US election, the S&P500 has remained unfazed and maintained an uptrend, buoyed by persistent expectations that the US economy will achieve a soft-landing. This has been matched by higher US bond yields, a rise that appears driven by higher real yields rather than rising inflation worries. The October-to-December period tends to be a seasonally positive period for equities and current trends suggest a potential repeat this year, though US elections may introduce volatility.

Placing US election event risk in context

How concerned should investors be about the risk posed by US elections? We’ve written previously that elections, whether in the US or elsewhere, can lead to short-term volatility in the lead up to the event. Such volatility can offer opportunities for short-term opportunistic trades (See bonds, equity and FX sections for more details).

However, history suggests this volatility tends to be short-lived. Therefore, we believe longer-term Foundation allocations are better-driven by a focus on the underlying fundamental backdrop, which remains positive. US macro data thus far remain consistent with a soft-landing, supported by further Fed rate cuts. This is why we remain Overweight US equities within a broader core allocation of global stocks.

Fig. 1 US elections have historically tended to have a short-lived impact on markets

S&P500 returns days before/after US Presidential elections

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Can gold keep rising?

Last month, we argued gold prices had room to rise further. This was a view driven by both ongoing central bank demand and a longer-term move lower in bond yields.

This view appears to be playing out as expected, with gold rising more than 4% over the past month. Interestingly, gold has continued to rise despite US bond yields moving higher, indicating price gains are fuelled by a combination of central bank buying and safe-haven demand. While a significant escalation in geopolitical tensions has been avoided thus far, risks remain high. Therefore, we retain our Overweight view on gold (relative to stocks, bonds and cash).

Taking advantage of the yield rebound

We believe the rebound in US bond yields offers an opportunity to add exposure. We previously noted that yields rising above 4% would represent an opportunity to add, an outcome that has now materialised.

In the near term, we view this as a chance to lock in an attractive income. Although yields have room to soften, we believe a sharp decline is unlikely over the next 1-3 months. Longer-term, though, yields can still move significantly lower as Fed rate cuts continue into 2025. We see bonds as a core holding in Foundation allocations. For Opportunistic allocations, we also recently opened a new buy idea for 20-year US government bonds (see Weekly Market View, published on 25 October 2024 for more details).

Within fixed income, the opportunity to lock in an income remains compelling, in our view, as cash yields are likely to continue moving lower following Fed rate cuts, resulting in the underperformance of cash relative to high-quality bonds.

This income opportunity can also extend to corporate and Emerging Market (EM) bonds, which have also benefited from the rebound in US government bond yields. However, the yield premium that these bonds offer over US government bonds remains tight and, thus, offers little value.

Fig. 2 We see the US bond yield rebound as an opportunity to lock in attractive income

US 2-year and 10-year government bond yields

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Consequently, this leaves us with a neutral view across major fixed income asset classes. Given this, we see the opportunity in bonds today, driven primarily by moves in US government bond yields.

US over non-US equities

We prefer US equites over other regions, given this is where the soft-landing narrative remains most pronounced. However, non-US markets offer a range of opportunities.

In Asia, further policy support from China could lead to renewed equity market gains in the short term. Nevertheless, we believe more sustained long-term gains are likely to require greater fiscal stimulus. Chinese equites are also arguably most vulnerable if Republican candidate Trump wins the presidential election, as he has proposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports. We, therefore, favour maintaining a core holding (neutral) view on Chinese equities within Asia.

Instead, we maintain an Overweight view on Indian equities. Gains in this market have paused, with foreign investor outflows being one key driver (likely driven by a combination of a stronger USD and a rotation within Asia towards China). Nevertheless, we remain more confident in the long term economic and earnings growth outlook in relative terms.

Japanese equities have seen some support returning given a softer JPY in recent weeks. We believe JPY weakness can persist over a 1-3 month horizon amid increased political uncertainty, after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the snap lower house elections. However, any JPY losses are likely to reverse over the 6-12 month horizon. From a foreign investor’s point of view, though, JPY strength and equity weakness are likely to offset each other. Our preference is to maintain a core holding based on expectations that rising wages and shareholder-friendly policies support sustained gains, independent of the currency.

Europe arguably faces the weakest growth outlook relative to other regions, causing us to maintain our Underweight view.

Foundation asset allocation models

The Foundation and Foundation+ models are allocations that you can use as the starting point for building a diversified investment portfolio. The Foundation model showcases a set of allocations focusing on traditional asset classes that are accessible to most investors, while the Foundation+ model includes allocations to private assets that may be accessible to investors in some jurisdictions, but not others.

Fig. 3 Foundation asset allocation for a balanced risk profile

Fig. 4 Foundation+ asset allocation for a balanced risk profile

Fig. 5 Multi-asset income allocation for a moderate risk profile

Additional perspectives

Today, Tomorrow and Forever

Performance review

Explanatory notes

1. The figures on page 4 show allocations for a moderately aggressive risk profile only – different risk profiles may produce significantly different asset allocation results. Page 4 is only an example, provided for general information only and they do not constitute investment advice, an offer, recommendation or solicitation. They do not take into account the specific investment objectives, needs or risk tolerances of a particular person or class of persons and they have not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons.

2. Contingent Convertibles are complex financial instruments and are not a suitable or appropriate investment for all investors. This document is not an offer to sell or an invitation to buy any securities or any beneficial interests therein. Contingent convertible securities are not intended to be sold and should not be sold to retail clients in the European Economic Area (EEA) (each as defined in the Policy Statement on the Restrictions on the Retail Distribution of Regulatory Capital Instruments (Feedback to CP14/23 and Final Rules) (“Policy Statement”), read together with the Product Intervention (Contingent Convertible Instruments and Mutual Society Shares) Instrument 2015 (“Instrument”, and together with the Policy Statement, the “Permanent Marketing Restrictions”), which were published by the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority in June 2015), other than in circumstances that do not give rise to a contravention of the Permanent Marketing Restrictions.

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