25 October 2024
Weekly Market View
Positioning for three event risks
The upcoming elections in the US and Japan, and the UK budget are presenting opportunities for investors.
We see an opening to lock in attractive US government bond yields for the medium-term as yields rise in anticipation of a Trump presidency.
There is also a rising chance of a yen rebound after Japan’s election, especially if the Bank of Japan intervenes. Meanwhile, the GBP could gain from a pro-growth UK budget.
Next week’s Q3 earnings and forward guidance from the US technology sector is likely to confirm our outlook for long-term structural growth from AI-related investments.
What are your expectations from China’s Q3 earnings season?
Should we add to US government bonds after the recent spike in yields?
Should we worry about a rotation of foreign investor flows from India to China equities?
Charts of the week: Fading the ‘Trump trade’
We see an opportunity to lock in attractive yields on US government bonds as markets price in a Trump presidency
Betting market odds for a Trump win and Republican sweep of the White House and Congress; US 10-year bond yield
US dollar index (DXY) and gold
Source: Polymarket, Kalshi, Predictit, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered; *Kalshi data starts from October
Editorial
Positioning for three event risks
The upcoming elections in the US and Japan, and the UK budget are presenting opportunities for investors. We see an opening to lock in attractive US government bond yields for the medium-term as yields rise in anticipation of a Trump presidency. There is also a rising chance of a yen rebound after Japan’s election, especially if the BoJ intervenes. Meanwhile, the GBP could gain from a pro-growth UK budget.
Trump continues to gain momentum: US bond yields, the USD and gold have surged in recent weeks amid strong US data. Increasingly, markets are pricing in a Trump presidency and a Republican ‘clean sweep’ of both houses of the Congress at the 5 November elections. Republicans are expected to win back control of the Senate, according to both opinion polls and betting markets. For the White House and the House of Representatives, polls show the race remains tight, especially in the so-called ‘swing’ states. Nevertheless, betting markets indicate Trump has gained momentum and is expected to win.
Lock in attractive US bond yields: We are opening an opportunistic idea to buy 20-year US Treasury bonds to lock-in income for the longer term (see page 4). We believe the recent surge in bond yields is excessive. The 10-year US government bond yield has surged 40bps over the past month, rising above 4.2% for the first time since July, amid concerns that a Republican clean sweep could lead to higher inflation and budget deficits because of Trump’s agenda of tax cuts, higher import tariffs and clampdown on immigration.
We expect US bond yields to eventually retreat, even if Trump wins, given our 6-12-month view of a soft-landing for the US economy. If Trump does return to the White House, he is likely to be pragmatic and responsive to the markets. As such, any knee-jerk sell-off in bond markets would likely lead to a recalibration of Trump’s policies. A Harris win, in turn, is likely to lower bond yields as the ‘Trump yield premium’ is priced out.
Lean against Yen weakness heading into Sunday’s elections: USD/JPY broke above 150 amid a stronger USD and increasing concerns about political instability after Japan’s lower house election on 27 October. An Asahi newspaper poll this week showed that the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition could lose majority support at the election, forcing them to form a broader coalition to stay in power. Such a scenario could weaken the hold of incumbent PM Ishida, a fiscal and monetary hawk, in turn putting further near-term pressure on the JPY. However, JPY appears oversold on technical charts. We would lean against further JPY weakness as we see increased intervention risk from the Bank of Japan (see page 5).
UK Labour government faces its first major test: Chancellor Reeves faces a tough balancing act as she presents the budget on 30 October. Reeves seeks to ramp up the UK’s long-term growth prospects through higher investment. Although she has ruled out tax hikes for c. 70% of the tax base, we expect tax increases to finance the government’s ambitious investment plans. Reports suggest these could include changes to non-domicile resident tax regime and VAT on private education, plus tax hikes on capital gains, inheritance and pensions.
GBP to benefit from a growth budget: A key focus for markets will be how the UK government plans to boost much-needed spending on infrastructure and how it plans to finance them. Reeves has confirmed plans to adopt new debt rules in the budget that will enable the government to borrow an additional GBP 50bn to fund investments, along with promises to reform public services. The Chancellor will be conscious of sustaining market confidence, given the memories of former Conservative PM Liz Truss’s mini-budget experience. The British pound (GBP) has trended higher since the Labour government came to power. A well-planned-and-communicated growth budget could fuel the GBP rally further. We see GBP benefitting from such an outcome. GBP/USD faces next resistance at 1.3510, followed by 1.3610.
The weekly macro balance sheet
Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term
(+) factors: Stronger-than-expected US PMI, China data; dovish PBoC
(-) factors: Weak US housing, Euro area manufacturing; hawkish Fed
US manufacturing and services PMI and Euro area manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, while Euro area services PMI fell unexpectedly
US and Euro area manufacturing and services PMIs
US and Euro area manufacturing and services PMIs
Euro area consumer confidence
China economic activity data improved more than expected in September
China industrial production, fixed assets investment and retail sales
Top client questions
What are your expectations from China’s Q3 earnings season?
The initial reports of the Q3 ’24 Chinese earnings growth season paint a modestly optimistic picture. According to Bloomberg, out of the 9% companies in the MSCI China index that have reported earnings so far, overall sales growth was high at 17.6%, led by Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, while Industrials and Communication Services lagged. Earnings growth surged by 58.5%, although we’d argue this was likely due to a low base effect. In fact, the earnings surprise is at -0.3% for the quarter, reflecting disinflation headwinds and stagnant domestic consumption growth.
We retain a Core holding (Neutral) view on Chinese equities within Asia ex-Japan. Valuations are still compelling even after the market rebound last month; consensus expectations for 2025 earnings growth also appear to be stable at 10.5%. That said, we retain some caution ahead of potentially more stimulus policy details and their impact on investor sentiment. We continue to favour high-dividend non-financials SOEs, due to their income stability and stable cash flows. From a sectoral perspective, we are overweight Technology, Healthcare, Communication services and Consumer discretionary – all of which are projected to have a higher earnings growth than the broader MSCI China index in 2025. The upcoming earnings reports from major internet companies and banks due next week will also be keenly scrutinised.
— Michelle Kam, Investment Strategist
Projected earnings growth for Chinese equities in 2025 remained largely stable
Projected earnings growth for MSCI China index in 2024-25
What is your outlook on crude oil and USD/CAD?
USD/CAD rose modestly after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rates by 50bps to 3.75%, as expected. The bank lowered its headline and core CPI forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Markets are now expecting another 25bps rate cut at the next meeting. Canada’s labour market is likely to remain weak with population growth outpacing hiring.
Meanwhile, much of the geopolitical risk premium in oil has faded, helped by the thus-far avoidance of further escalation of Middle East tensions. The focus now returns to the demand-supply fundamentals which are showing signs of softening. US inventories posted an unexpectedly high build of 5.47mbbl last week. In China, while loan prime rate cuts are positive at the margin, the apparent oil demand continued to be weak – down 7% y/y in September. WTI oil is likely to trade rangebound with a downward bias in the near term, acting as a headwind for the CAD.
Technically, the pair is trading in overbought territory. We expect a technical retreat to 1.3670 before the pair tests near-term resistance at 1.3900 in the coming week. Therefore, the pair is likely entering a consolidation stage. Canada’s GDP growth will be closely watched.
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
— Han Zhong Liang, CFA, Investment Strategist
China crude oil demand continued to be soft
China apparent oil demand
Top client questions (cont’d)
What is the outlook for USD/JPY?
USD/JPY broke above 150 recently amid a stronger USD. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted it was still taking time to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target, signalling that the central bank is likely to tread carefully in pushing up the country’s still near-zero interest rates. However, he also warned of the cost of moving too slowly in raising rates, which could offer speculators an excuse to trigger an unwelcome yen slide that pushes up import costs. The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at next week’s policy meeting.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY is trading in overbought territory and appears overstretched, likely limiting further upside for the pair near-term. A gauge measuring the USD/JPY move from the lowest level seen in the past 28 days rose to 11.5, close to a range high and not far from levels when the BoJ historically considered intervention (see chart). This suggests speculation of an intervention may intensify if the currency pair approaches 155. We see risks tilted to the downside, especially if a BoJ intervention leads to an unwind of the yen carry trade in the near-term. We initiate a bearish USD/JPY trade idea to capture a short-term technical correction opportunity (see the 24-Oct-2024 Daily Navigator for further details).
— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist
USD/JPY pair’s move over the past 28 days rose to 11.5; we see greater downside risk for the pair and higher volatility ahead
USD/JPY 28-day rolling change
What is the outlook for the global semiconductor sector?
Growth in the global semiconductor sector appears uneven in the near term. Several large companies in the sector have reported Q3 earnings illustrating strong demand for advanced semiconductor chips. Outlook for the most advanced chips appear positive, as capacity remains constrained amid strong AI-driven demand. This growth runway could extend beyond data centres as AI applications are rolled out in devices like smartphones and PCs.
Having said that, demand recovery in the automotive, mobile and PC markets which use less advanced chips, has been slower than expected. High inventory levels in these industries could dampen and delay the cyclical recovery. Furthermore, sales to China remain subject to uncertainty and likely greater restrictions due to geopolitical concerns; China accounts for a significant 21% of revenue for the Philadelphia Semiconductor index.
On balance, we expect the structural AI demand to be supportive of the global semiconductor sector. The cyclical recovery should still come through with a soft landing expected in the US economy. Much of the structural AI demand is underpinned by strong cashflows from big tech companies. We continue to be overweight the US technology sector for the structural growth it offers. We expect next week’s earnings from big tech to affirm the positive growth outlook.
— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist
China accounts for a significant 21% of sales to the semiconductor industry; this could be subject to further restrictions due to geopolitical concerns
Geographical sales breakdown for the Philadelphia Semiconductor index
Top client questions (cont’d)
Should we add US government bonds after the yield rise?
The US government bond yield curve bear-steepened (ie. both long and short maturity yields rose) this week as the market continues to price in a rising probability of a Trump. The 10-year yield has surged above 4.20%, a level last seen in July. Long-term inflation expectations indicators, such as the 10-year breakeven yield, have barely moved. This suggests the surge in the 10-year yield has been primarily driven by real (net-of-inflation) yields. The 10-year yield is approaching technical resistance at 4.29%. A break above this level could lead to a test of the next resistance at 4.44%.
We maintain our view that developed market investment grade (DM IG) government bonds should remain a core holding. While risk-reward has become more attractive with the rise in yields, near-term volatility is expected to remain high as we approach the US election.
Nevertheless, we believe risk/reward has already become attractive to add exposure, even if further temporary spikes are still forthcoming. Based on this view, we are initiating a tactical buy on US 20-year-plus government bonds, adding this to our opportunistic allocation. Key risks of this trade include higher reflationary expectations and unsupportive supply-demand dynamics.
— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist
The surge in US bond yield in recent weeks was mainly driven by real (net-of-inflation) component
Changes in real and breakeven yield derived from US 10-year government bonds
Should we worry about a rotation of foreign investor flows from India to China equities?
Indian equities have witnessed a pull-back after touching an all-time in high in September. Foreign investor outflows totalled approximately USD 9bn in October month to date, the sharpest monthly outflow since March 2020.
While the initial outflows were arguably driven by reallocation to Chinese equities, several other factors likely supported the move. First, high frequency indicators point to a gradual normalization in economic activity from their earlier strong pace. Second, the Q3 earnings started on a lacklustre note, raising concerns of downward revisions to 2024 estimates. Finally, Indian equities continue to trade at a valuation premium relative to China and other Asian peers.
In the short term, we expect volatility to remain elevated in Indian equities as markets adjust to these shifts. Over a 6-12 month period, though, we continue to believe our positive view on Indian equities is supported by its still-robust economic growth and corporate earnings cycle. Additionally, robust domestic investor flows, amid improving financialization of savings and low foreign investor positioning, are supportive factors for Indian equities.
Risks to our view include a surge in inflation, slowing domestic demand, US and Indian state elections and geopolitics.
— Ravi Kumar Singh, Chief Investment Strategist, India
Foreign investor flows into India remain volatile; domestic investors drive resilience of Indian equities
Monthly flows (USD bn)
Market performance summary*
Our 12-month asset class views at a glance
Economic and market calendar
The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 5,901
Technical indicators for key markets as of 24 October close
Investor diversity in gold has fallen below a key threshold
Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 24 Oct close
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