Skip to content

25 October 2024

Weekly Market View

Positioning for three event risks

The upcoming elections in the US and Japan, and the UK budget are presenting opportunities for investors.

We see an opening to lock in attractive US government bond yields for the medium-term as yields rise in anticipation of a Trump presidency.

There is also a rising chance of a yen rebound after Japan’s election, especially if the Bank of Japan intervenes. Meanwhile, the GBP could gain from a pro-growth UK budget.

Next week’s Q3 earnings and forward guidance from the US technology sector is likely to confirm our outlook for long-term structural growth from AI-related investments.


What are your expectations from China’s Q3 earnings season?

Should we add to US government bonds after the recent spike in yields?

Should we worry about a rotation of foreign investor flows from India to China equities?

Charts of the week: Fading the ‘Trump trade’

We see an opportunity to lock in attractive yields on US government bonds as markets price in a Trump presidency

Betting market odds for a Trump win and Republican sweep of the White House and Congress; US 10-year bond yield

US dollar index (DXY) and gold

Source: Polymarket, Kalshi, Predictit, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered; *Kalshi data starts from October

Editorial

Positioning for three event risks

The upcoming elections in the US and Japan, and the UK budget are presenting opportunities for investors. We see an opening to lock in attractive US government bond yields for the medium-term as yields rise in anticipation of a Trump presidency. There is also a rising chance of a yen rebound after Japan’s election, especially if the BoJ intervenes. Meanwhile, the GBP could gain from a pro-growth UK budget.

Trump continues to gain momentum: US bond yields, the USD and gold have surged in recent weeks amid strong US data. Increasingly, markets are pricing in a Trump presidency and a Republican ‘clean sweep’ of both houses of the Congress at the 5 November elections. Republicans are expected to win back control of the Senate, according to both opinion polls and betting markets. For the White House and the House of Representatives, polls show the race remains tight, especially in the so-called ‘swing’ states. Nevertheless, betting markets indicate Trump has gained momentum and is expected to win.

Lock in attractive US bond yields: We are opening an opportunistic idea to buy 20-year US Treasury bonds to lock-in income for the longer term (see page 4). We believe the recent surge in bond yields is excessive. The 10-year US government bond yield has surged 40bps over the past month, rising above 4.2% for the first time since July, amid concerns that a Republican clean sweep could lead to higher inflation and budget deficits because of Trump’s agenda of tax cuts, higher import tariffs and clampdown on immigration.

We expect US bond yields to eventually retreat, even if Trump wins, given our 6-12-month view of a soft-landing for the US economy. If Trump does return to the White House, he is likely to be pragmatic and responsive to the markets. As such, any knee-jerk sell-off in bond markets would likely lead to a recalibration of Trump’s policies. A Harris win, in turn, is likely to lower bond yields as the ‘Trump yield premium’ is priced out.

Lean against Yen weakness heading into Sunday’s elections: USD/JPY broke above 150 amid a stronger USD and increasing concerns about political instability after Japan’s lower house election on 27 October. An Asahi newspaper poll this week showed that the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition could lose majority support at the election, forcing them to form a broader coalition to stay in power. Such a scenario could weaken the hold of incumbent PM Ishida, a fiscal and monetary hawk, in turn putting further near-term pressure on the JPY. However, JPY appears oversold on technical charts. We would lean against further JPY weakness as we see increased intervention risk from the Bank of Japan (see page 5).  

UK Labour government faces its first major test: Chancellor Reeves faces a tough balancing act as she presents the budget on 30 October. Reeves seeks to ramp up the UK’s long-term growth prospects through higher investment. Although she has ruled out tax hikes for c. 70% of the tax base, we expect tax increases to finance the government’s ambitious investment plans. Reports suggest these could include changes to non-domicile resident tax regime and VAT on private education, plus tax hikes on capital gains, inheritance and pensions.

GBP to benefit from a growth budget: A key focus for markets will be how the UK government plans to boost much-needed spending on infrastructure and how it plans to finance them. Reeves has confirmed plans to adopt new debt rules in the budget that will enable the government to borrow an additional GBP 50bn to fund investments, along with promises to reform public services. The Chancellor will be conscious of sustaining market confidence, given the memories of former Conservative PM Liz Truss’s mini-budget experience. The British pound (GBP) has trended higher since the Labour government came to power. A well-planned-and-communicated growth budget could fuel the GBP rally further. We see GBP benefitting from such an outcome. GBP/USD faces next resistance at 1.3510, followed by 1.3610.

The weekly macro balance sheet

Our weekly net assessment: On balance, we see the past week’s data and policy as neutral for risk assets in the near-term

(+) factors: Stronger-than-expected US PMI, China data; dovish PBoC
(-) factors: Weak US housing, Euro area manufacturing; hawkish Fed


US manufacturing and services PMI and Euro area manufacturing PMI rose more than expected, while Euro area services PMI fell unexpectedly

US and Euro area manufacturing and services PMIs

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

US and Euro area manufacturing and services PMIs

Euro area consumer confidence

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

China economic activity data improved more than expected in September

China industrial production, fixed assets investment and retail sales

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Top client questions

What are your expectations from China’s Q3 earnings season?

The initial reports of the Q3 ’24 Chinese earnings growth season paint a modestly optimistic picture. According to Bloomberg, out of the 9% companies in the MSCI China index that have reported earnings so far, overall sales growth was high at 17.6%, led by Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, while Industrials and Communication Services lagged. Earnings growth surged by 58.5%, although we’d argue this was likely due to a low base effect. In fact, the earnings surprise is at -0.3% for the quarter, reflecting disinflation headwinds and stagnant domestic consumption growth.

We retain a Core holding (Neutral) view on Chinese equities within Asia ex-Japan. Valuations are still compelling even after the market rebound last month; consensus expectations for 2025 earnings growth also appear to be stable at 10.5%. That said, we retain some caution ahead of potentially more stimulus policy details and their impact on investor sentiment. We continue to favour high-dividend non-financials SOEs, due to their income stability and stable cash flows. From a sectoral perspective, we are overweight Technology, Healthcare, Communication services and Consumer discretionary – all of which are projected to have a higher earnings growth than the broader MSCI China index in 2025. The upcoming earnings reports from major internet companies and banks due next week will also be keenly scrutinised.

— Michelle Kam, Investment Strategist


Projected earnings growth for Chinese equities in 2025 remained largely stable

Projected earnings growth for MSCI China index in 2024-25

Source: FactSet, Standard Chartered

What is your outlook on crude oil and USD/CAD?

USD/CAD rose modestly after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rates by 50bps to 3.75%, as expected. The bank lowered its headline and core CPI forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Markets are now expecting another 25bps rate cut at the next meeting. Canada’s labour market is likely to remain weak with population growth outpacing hiring.

Meanwhile, much of the geopolitical risk premium in oil has faded, helped by the thus-far avoidance of further escalation of Middle East tensions. The focus now returns to the demand-supply fundamentals which are showing signs of softening. US inventories posted an unexpectedly high build of 5.47mbbl last week. In China, while loan prime rate cuts are positive at the margin, the apparent oil demand continued to be weak – down 7% y/y in September. WTI oil is likely to trade rangebound with a downward bias in the near term, acting as a headwind for the CAD.

Technically, the pair is trading in overbought territory. We expect a technical retreat to 1.3670 before the pair tests near-term resistance at 1.3900 in the coming week. Therefore, the pair is likely entering a consolidation stage. Canada’s GDP growth will be closely watched.

— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist

— Han Zhong Liang, CFA, Investment Strategist

China crude oil demand continued to be soft

China apparent oil demand

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Top client questions (cont’d)

What is the outlook for USD/JPY?

USD/JPY broke above 150 recently amid a stronger USD. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda noted it was still taking time to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target, signalling that the central bank is likely to tread carefully in pushing up the country’s still near-zero interest rates. However, he also warned of the cost of moving too slowly in raising rates, which could offer speculators an excuse to trigger an unwelcome yen slide that pushes up import costs. The BOJ is expected to keep rates steady at next week’s policy meeting.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY is trading in overbought territory and appears overstretched, likely limiting further upside for the pair near-term. A gauge measuring the USD/JPY move from the lowest level seen in the past 28 days rose to 11.5, close to a range high and not far from levels when the BoJ historically considered intervention (see chart). This suggests speculation of an intervention may intensify if the currency pair approaches 155. We see risks tilted to the downside, especially if a BoJ intervention leads to an unwind of the yen carry trade in the near-term. We initiate a bearish USD/JPY trade idea to capture a short-term technical correction opportunity (see the 24-Oct-2024 Daily Navigator for further details).

— Iris Yuen, Investment Strategist


USD/JPY pair’s move over the past 28 days rose to 11.5; we see greater downside risk for the pair and higher volatility ahead

USD/JPY 28-day rolling change

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

What is the outlook for the global semiconductor sector?

Growth in the global semiconductor sector appears uneven in the near term. Several large companies in the sector have reported Q3 earnings illustrating strong demand for advanced semiconductor chips. Outlook for the most advanced chips appear positive, as capacity remains constrained amid strong AI-driven demand. This growth runway could extend beyond data centres as AI applications are rolled out in devices like smartphones and PCs.

Having said that, demand recovery in the automotive, mobile and PC markets which use less advanced chips, has been slower than expected. High inventory levels in these industries could dampen and delay the cyclical recovery. Furthermore, sales to China remain subject to uncertainty and likely greater restrictions due to geopolitical concerns; China accounts for a significant 21% of revenue for the Philadelphia Semiconductor index.

On balance, we expect the structural AI demand to be supportive of the global semiconductor sector. The cyclical recovery should still come through with a soft landing expected in the US economy. Much of the structural AI demand is underpinned by strong cashflows from big tech companies. We continue to be overweight the US technology sector for the structural growth it offers. We expect next week’s earnings from big tech to affirm the positive growth outlook.

— Fook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist

China accounts for a significant 21% of sales to the semiconductor industry; this could be subject to further restrictions due to geopolitical concerns

Geographical sales breakdown for the Philadelphia Semiconductor index

Source: FactSet, Standard Chartered

Top client questions (cont’d)

Should we add US government bonds after the yield rise?

The US government bond yield curve bear-steepened (ie. both long and short maturity yields rose) this week as the market continues to price in a rising probability of a Trump. The 10-year yield has surged above 4.20%, a level last seen in July. Long-term inflation expectations indicators, such as the 10-year breakeven yield, have barely moved. This suggests the surge in the 10-year yield has been primarily driven by real (net-of-inflation) yields. The 10-year yield is approaching technical resistance at 4.29%. A break above this level could lead to a test of the next resistance at 4.44%.

We maintain our view that developed market investment grade (DM IG) government bonds should remain a core holding. While risk-reward has become more attractive with the rise in yields, near-term volatility is expected to remain high as we approach the US election.

Nevertheless, we believe risk/reward has already become attractive to add exposure, even if further temporary spikes are still forthcoming. Based on this view, we are initiating a tactical buy on US 20-year-plus government bonds, adding this to our opportunistic allocation. Key risks of this trade include higher reflationary expectations and unsupportive supply-demand dynamics.

— Cedric Lam, Senior Investment Strategist


The surge in US bond yield in recent weeks was mainly driven by real (net-of-inflation) component

Changes in real and breakeven yield derived from US 10-year government bonds

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Should we worry about a rotation of foreign investor flows from India to China equities?

Indian equities have witnessed a pull-back after touching an all-time in high in September. Foreign investor outflows totalled approximately USD 9bn in October month to date, the sharpest monthly outflow since March 2020.

While the initial outflows were arguably driven by reallocation to Chinese equities, several other factors likely supported the move. First, high frequency indicators point to a gradual normalization in economic activity from their earlier strong pace. Second, the Q3 earnings started on a lacklustre note, raising concerns of downward revisions to 2024 estimates. Finally, Indian equities continue to trade at a valuation premium relative to China and other Asian peers.

In the short term, we expect volatility to remain elevated in Indian equities as markets adjust to these shifts. Over a 6-12 month period, though, we continue to believe our positive view on Indian equities is supported by its still-robust economic growth and corporate earnings cycle. Additionally, robust domestic investor flows, amid improving financialization of savings and low foreign investor positioning, are supportive factors for Indian equities.

Risks to our view include a surge in inflation, slowing domestic demand, US and Indian state elections and geopolitics.

— Ravi Kumar Singh, Chief Investment Strategist, India

Foreign investor flows into India remain volatile; domestic investors drive resilience of Indian equities

Monthly flows (USD bn)

Source: Bloomberg, Standard Chartered

Market performance summary*

Sources: MSCI, JP Morgan, Barclays Capital, Citigroup, Dow Jones, HFRX, FTSE, Bloomberg, Standard Chartered
*Performance in USD terms unless otherwise stated, 2024 YTD performance from 31 December 2023 to 24 October 2024; 1-week period: 17 October 2024 to 24 October 2024

Our 12-month asset class views at a glance

Economic and market calendar

The S&P500 has next interim resistance at 5,901

Technical indicators for key markets as of 24 October close


Investor diversity in gold has fallen below a key threshold

Our proprietary market diversity indicators as of 24 Oct close

Disclosure

This document is confidential and may also be privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, please destroy all copies and notify the sender immediately. This document is being distributed for general information only and is subject to the relevant disclaimers available at our Standard Chartered website under Regulatory disclosures. It is not and does not constitute research material, independent research, an offer, recommendation or solicitation to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, in relation to any securities or other financial instruments. This document is for general evaluation only. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person or class of persons and it has not been prepared for any particular person or class of persons. You should not rely on any contents of this document in making any investment decisions. Before making any investment, you should carefully read the relevant offering documents and seek independent legal, tax and regulatory advice. In particular, we recommend you to seek advice regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before you make a commitment to purchase the investment product. Opinions, projections and estimates are solely those of SC at the date of this document and subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up, and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. You are not certain to make a profit and may lose money. Any forecast contained herein as to likely future movements in rates or prices or likely future events or occurrences constitutes an opinion only and is not indicative of actual future movements in rates or prices or actual future events or occurrences (as the case may be). This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of the Standard Chartered Group (as defined below). Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered PLC, the ultimate parent company of Standard Chartered Bank, together with its subsidiaries and affiliates (including each branch or representative office), form the Standard Chartered Group. Standard Chartered Private Bank is the private banking division of Standard Chartered. Private banking activities may be carried out internationally by different legal entities and affiliates within the Standard Chartered Group (each an “SC Group Entity”) according to local regulatory requirements. Not all products and services are provided by all branches, subsidiaries and affiliates within the Standard Chartered Group. Some of the SC Group Entities only act as representatives of Standard Chartered Private Bank and may not be able to offer products and services or offer advice to clients.

Copyright © 2024, Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA (and its affiliates, as applicable). Reproduction of content provided by CFRA in any form is prohibited except with the prior written permission of CFRA. CFRA content is not investment advice and a reference to or observation concerning a security or investment provided in the CFRA SERVICES is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security or make any other investment decisions. The CFRA content contains opinions of CFRA based upon publicly-available information that CFRA believes to be reliable and the opinions are subject to change without notice. This analysis has not been submitted to, nor received approval from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory body. While CFRA exercised due care in compiling this analysis, CFRA, ITS THIRD-PARTY SUPPLIERS, AND ALL RELATED ENTITIES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, to the full extent permitted by law, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of this information and assumes no liability with respect to the consequences of relying on this information for investment or other purposes. No content provided by CFRA (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of CFRA, and such content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. CFRA and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of such content. In no event shall CFRA, its affiliates, or their third-party suppliers be liable for any direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with a subscriber’s, subscriber’s customer’s, or other’s use of CFRA’s content.

Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) Disclaimer

Banking activities may be carried out internationally by different branches, subsidiaries and affiliates within the Standard Chartered Group according to local regulatory requirements. Opinions may contain outright “buy”, “sell”, “hold” or other opinions. The time horizon of this opinion is dependent on prevailing market conditions and there is no planned frequency for updates to the opinion. This opinion is not independent of Standard Chartered Group’s trading strategies or positions. Standard Chartered Group and/or its affiliates or its respective officers, directors, employee benefit programmes or employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this document may at any time, to the extent permitted by applicable law and/or regulation, be long or short any securities or financial instruments referred to in this document or have material interest in any such securities or related investments. Therefore, it is possible, and you should assume, that Standard Chartered Group has a material interest in one or more of the financial instruments mentioned herein. Please refer to our Standard Chartered website under Regulatory disclosures for more detailed disclosures, including past opinions/ recommendations in the last 12 months and conflict of interests, as well as disclaimers. A covering strategist may have a financial interest in the debt or equity securities of this company/issuer. This document must not be forwarded or otherwise made available to any other person without the express written consent of Standard Chartered Group.

Sustainable Investments

Any ESG data used or referred to has been provided by Morningstar, Sustainalytics, MSCI or Bloomberg. Refer to 1) Morningstar website under Sustainable Investing, 2) Sustainalytics website under ESG Risk Ratings, 3) MCSI website under ESG Business Involvement Screening Research and 4) Bloomberg green, social & sustainability bonds guide for more information. The ESG data is as at the date of publication based on data provided, is for informational purpose only and is not warranted to be complete, timely, accurate or suitable for a particular purpose, and it may be subject to change. Sustainable Investments (SI): This refers to funds that have been classified as ‘Sustainable Investments’ by Morningstar. SI funds have explicitly stated in their prospectus and regulatory filings that they either incorporate ESG factors into the investment process or have a thematic focus on the environment, gender diversity, low carbon, renewable energy, water or community development. For equity, it refers to shares/stocks issued by companies with Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating of Low/Negligible. For bonds, it refers to debt instruments issued by issuers with Sustainalytics ESG Risk Rating of Low/Negligible, and/or those being certified green, social, sustainable bonds by Bloomberg. For structured products, it refers to products that are issued by any issuer who has a Sustainable Finance framework that aligns with Standard Chartered’s Green and Sustainable Product Framework, with underlying assets that are part of the Sustainable Investment universe or separately approved by Standard Chartered’s Sustainable Finance Governance Committee. Sustainalytics ESG risk ratings shown are factual and are not an indicator that the product is classified or marketed as “green”, “sustainable” or similar under any particular classification system or framework.

Country/Market Specific Disclosures

Botswana: This document is being distributed in Botswana by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank Botswana Limited which is a financial institution licensed under the Section 6 of the Banking Act CAP 46.04 and is listed in the Botswana Stock Exchange. Brunei Darussalam: This document is being distributed in Brunei Darussalam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Brunei Branch) | Registration Number RFC/61 and Standard Chartered Securities (B) Sdn Bhd | Registration Number RC20001003. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18. Standard Chartered Securities (B) Sdn Bhd is a limited liability company registered with the Registry of Companies with Registration Number RC20001003 and licensed by Brunei Darussalam Central Bank as a Capital Markets Service License Holder with License Number BDCB/R/CMU/S3-CL and it is authorised to conduct Islamic investment business through an Islamic window. China Mainland: This document is being distributed in China by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (China) Limited which is mainly regulated by National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA), State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), and People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Hong Kong: In Hong Kong, this document, except for any portion advising on or facilitating any decision on futures contracts trading, is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited (“SCBHK”), a subsidiary of Standard Chartered PLC. SCBHK has its registered address at 32/F, Standard Chartered Bank Building, 4-4A Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong and is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and registered with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to carry on Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 4 (advising on securities), Type 6 (advising on corporate finance) and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activity under the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571) (“SFO”) (CE No. AJI614). The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong and you are advised to exercise caution in relation to any offer set out herein. If you are in doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice. Any product named herein may not be offered or sold in Hong Kong by means of any document at any time other than to “professional investors” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under that ordinance. In addition, this document may not be issued or possessed for the purposes of issue, whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere, and any interests may not be disposed of, to any person unless such person is outside Hong Kong or is a “professional investor” as defined in the SFO and any rules made under that ordinance, or as otherwise may be permitted by that ordinance. In Hong Kong, Standard Chartered Private Bank is the private banking division of SCBHK, a subsidiary of Standard Chartered PLC. Ghana: Standard Chartered Bank Ghana Limited accepts no liability and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of these documents. Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation or warranty is made regarding future performance. You should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment for you, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment. To unsubscribe from receiving further updates, please send an email to feedback.ghana@sc.com. Please do not reply to this email. Call our Priority Banking on 0302610750 for any questions or service queries. You are advised not to send any confidential and/or important information to Standard Chartered via e-mail, as Standard Chartered makes no representations or warranties as to the security or accuracy of any information transmitted via e-mail. Standard Chartered shall not be responsible for any loss or damage suffered by you arising from your decision to use e-mail to communicate with the Bank. India: This document is being distributed in India by Standard Chartered in its capacity as a distributor of mutual funds and referrer of any other third party financial products. Standard Chartered does not offer any ‘Investment Advice’ as defined in the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Investment Advisers) Regulations, 2013 or otherwise. Services/products related securities business offered by Standard Charted are not intended for any person, who is a resident of any jurisdiction, the laws of which imposes prohibition on soliciting the securities business in that jurisdiction without going through the registration requirements and/or prohibit the use of any information contained in this document. Indonesia: This document is being distributed in Indonesia by Standard Chartered Bank, Indonesia branch, which is a financial institution licensed, registered and supervised by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (Financial Service Authority). Jersey: In Jersey, Standard Chartered Private Bank is the Registered Business Name of the Jersey Branch of Standard Chartered Bank. The Jersey Branch of Standard Chartered Bank is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. Copies of the latest audited accounts of Standard Chartered Bank are available from its principal place of business in Jersey: PO Box 80, 15 Castle Street, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8PT. Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter in 1853 Reference Number ZC 18. The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. The Jersey Branch of Standard Chartered Bank is also an authorised financial services provider under license number 44946 issued by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority of the Republic of South Africa. Jersey is not part of the United Kingdom and all business transacted with Standard Chartered Bank, Jersey Branch and other SC Group Entity outside of the United Kingdom, are not subject to some or any of the investor protection and compensation schemes available under United Kingdom law. Kenya: This document is being distributed in Kenya by and is attributable to Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Limited. Investment Products and Services are distributed by Standard Chartered Investment Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Limited that is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority in Kenya, as a Fund Manager. Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Kenya. Malaysia: This document is being distributed in Malaysia by Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Berhad (“SCBMB”). Recipients in Malaysia should contact SCBMB in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. This document has not been reviewed by the Securities Commission Malaysia. The product lodgement, registration, submission or approval by the Securities Commission of Malaysia does not amount to nor indicate recommendation or endorsement of the product, service or promotional activity. Investment products are not deposits and are not obligations of, not guaranteed by, and not protected by SCBMB or any of the affiliates or subsidiaries, or by Perbadanan Insurans Deposit Malaysia, any government or insurance agency. Investment products are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. SCBMB expressly disclaim any liability and responsibility for any loss arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) arising from the financial losses of the Investment Products due to market condition. Nigeria: This document is being distributed in Nigeria by Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria Limited (SCB Nigeria), a bank duly licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Nigeria. SCB Nigeria accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly (including special, incidental or consequential loss or damage) from your use of these documents. You should seek advice from a financial adviser on the suitability of an investment for you, taking into account these factors before making a commitment to invest in an investment. To unsubscribe from receiving further updates, please send an email to clientcare.ng@sc.com requesting to be removed from our mailing list. Please do not reply to this email. Call our Priority Banking on 02 012772514 for any questions or service queries. Standard Chartered shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from your decision to send confidential and/or important information to Standard Chartered via e-mail, as Standard Chartered makes no representations or warranties as to the security or accuracy of any information transmitted via e-mail.  Pakistan: This document is being distributed in Pakistan by, and attributable to Standard Chartered Bank (Pakistan) Limited having its registered office at PO Box 5556, I.I Chundrigar Road Karachi, which is a banking company registered with State Bank of Pakistan under Banking Companies Ordinance 1962 and is also having licensed issued by Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan for Security Advisors. Standard Chartered Bank (Pakistan) Limited acts as a distributor of mutual funds and referrer of other third-party financial products. Singapore: This document is being distributed in Singapore by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Singapore) Limited (Registration No. 201224747C/ GST Group Registration No. MR-8500053-0, “SCBSL”). Recipients in Singapore should contact SCBSL in relation to any matters arising from, or in connection with, this document. SCBSL is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Standard Chartered Bank and is licensed to conduct banking business in Singapore under the Singapore Banking Act, 1970. Standard Chartered Private Bank is the private banking division of SCBSL. IN RELATION TO ANY SECURITY OR SECURITIES-BASED DERIVATIVES CONTRACT REFERRED TO IN THIS DOCUMENT, THIS DOCUMENT, TOGETHER WITH THE ISSUER DOCUMENTATION, SHALL BE DEEMED AN INFORMATION MEMORANDUM (AS DEFINED IN SECTION 275 OF THE SECURITIES AND FUTURES ACT, 2001 (“SFA”)). THIS DOCUMENT IS INTENDED FOR DISTRIBUTION TO ACCREDITED INVESTORS, AS DEFINED IN SECTION 4A(1)(a) OF THE SFA, OR ON THE BASIS THAT THE SECURITY OR SECURITIES-BASED DERIVATIVES CONTRACT MAY ONLY BE ACQUIRED AT A CONSIDERATION OF NOT LESS THAN S$200,000 (OR ITS EQUIVALENT IN A FOREIGN CURRENCY) FOR EACH TRANSACTION. Further, in relation to any security or securities-based derivatives contract, neither this document nor the Issuer Documentation has been registered as a prospectus with the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the SFA. Accordingly, this document and any other document or material in connection with the offer or sale, or invitation for subscription or purchase, of the product may not be circulated or distributed, nor may the product be offered or sold, or be made the subject of an invitation for subscription or purchase, whether directly or indirectly, to persons other than a relevant person pursuant to section 275(1) of the SFA, or any person pursuant to section 275(1A) of the SFA, and in accordance with the conditions specified in section 275 of the SFA, or pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provision of the SFA. In relation to any collective investment schemes referred to in this document, this document is for general information purposes only and is not an offering document or prospectus (as defined in the SFA). This document is not, nor is it intended to be (i) an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any capital markets product; or (ii) an advertisement of an offer or intended offer of any capital markets product. Deposit Insurance Scheme: Singapore dollar deposits of non-bank depositors are insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation, for up to S$100,000 in aggregate per depositor per Scheme member by law. Foreign currency deposits, dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Taiwan: SC Group Entity or Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) Limited (“SCB (Taiwan)”) may be involved in the financial instruments contained herein or other related financial instruments. The author of this document may have discussed the information contained herein with other employees or agents of SC or SCB (Taiwan). The author and the above-mentioned employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have taken related actions in respect of the information involved (including communication with customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) as to the information contained herein). The opinions contained in this document may change, or differ from the opinions of employees of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC and SCB (Taiwan) will not provide any notice of any changes to or differences between the above-mentioned opinions. This document may cover companies with which SC or SCB (Taiwan) seeks to do business at times and issuers of financial instruments. Therefore, investors should understand that the information contained herein may serve as specific purposes as a result of conflict of interests of SC or SCB (Taiwan). SC, SCB (Taiwan), the employees (including those who have discussions with the author) or customers of SC or SCB (Taiwan) may have an interest in the products, related financial instruments or related derivative financial products contained herein; invest in those products at various prices and on different market conditions; have different or conflicting interests in those products. The potential impacts include market makers’ related activities, such as dealing, investment, acting as agents, or performing financial or consulting services in relation to any of the products referred to in this document. UAE: DIFC – Standard Chartered Bank is incorporated in England with limited liability by Royal Charter 1853 Reference Number ZC18.The Principal Office of the Company is situated in England at 1 Basinghall Avenue, London, EC2V 5DD. Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Standard Chartered Bank, Dubai International Financial Centre having its offices at Dubai International Financial Centre, Building 1, Gate Precinct, P.O. Box 999, Dubai, UAE is a branch of Standard Chartered Bank and is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). This document is intended for use only by Professional Clients and is not directed at Retail Clients as defined by the DFSA Rulebook. In the DIFC we are authorised to provide financial services only to clients who qualify as Professional Clients and Market Counterparties and not to Retail Clients. As a Professional Client you will not be given the higher retail client protection and compensation rights and if you use your right to be classified as a Retail Client we will be unable to provide financial services and products to you as we do not hold the required license to undertake such activities. For Islamic transactions, we are acting under the supervision of our Shariah Supervisory Committee. Relevant information on our Shariah Supervisory Committee is currently available on the Standard Chartered Bank website in the Islamic banking section. For residents of the UAE – Standard Chartered Bank UAE does not provide financial analysis or consultation services in or into the UAE within the meaning of UAE Securities and Commodities Authority Decision No. 48/r of 2008 concerning financial consultation and financial analysis. Uganda: Our Investment products and services are distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Uganda Limited, which is licensed by the Capital Markets Authority as an investment adviser. United Kingdom: In the UK, Standard Chartered Bank is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. This communication has been approved by Standard Chartered Bank for the purposes of Section 21 (2) (b) of the United Kingdom’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) as amended in 2010 and 2012 only. Standard Chartered Bank (trading as Standard Chartered Private Bank) is also an authorised financial services provider (license number 45747) in terms of the South African Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act, 2002. The Materials have not been prepared in accordance with UK legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Vietnam: This document is being distributed in Vietnam by, and is attributable to, Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited which is mainly regulated by State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Recipients in Vietnam should contact Standard Chartered Bank (Vietnam) Limited for any queries regarding any content of this document. Zambia: This document is distributed by Standard Chartered Bank Zambia Plc, a company incorporated in Zambia and registered as a commercial bank and licensed by the Bank of Zambia under the Banking and Financial Services Act Chapter 387 of the Laws of Zambia.