Shifting trade corridors and economic resilience: insights from leading experts

Earlier this month, Standard Chartered hosted its Lunar New Year Celebration and Forum at London’s Guildhall, featuring an insightful panel discussion on the evolving global economic landscape.

The discussion was chaired by Eric Robertsen, Head of Global Research and Chief Strategist at Standard Chartered. He was joined by Saif Malik, Standard Chartered’s UK CEO and Head of Client Coverage, Isabelle Jenkins, Head of Financial Services at PwC UK, and Sir Robin Niblett, former director of, and distinguished fellow at, Chatham House. Together, they explored how shifting trade corridors, geopolitical challenges, and emerging investment opportunities will shape global markets in the years ahead. Here are the key takeaways from the discussion.

How is the global economic landscape shifting, and what does this mean for businesses?

Isabelle Jenkins: One of the key trends we’re witnessing is the move from a bipolar business world to a multipolar one, where trade corridors are shifting significantly. Research we’ve conducted in partnership with Standard Chartered highlights the rapid growth of intra-Asia trade, as well as trade flows between Asia and the Middle East, and Asia and Africa. Businesses must acknowledge and adapt to these changing dynamics.

Another significant shift is the movement from assets and goods toward services. This evolution is reshaping business models and investment strategies globally. Despite challenges, there’s a sense of optimism. At PwC we conduct an annual CEO survey to gauge the views of business leaders around the world. This year it found that 60 per cent of global CEOs expect economic growth to improve this year, a notable rise from previous years.

How are geopolitical tensions impacting global trade and investment?

Sir Robin Niblett: The world is grappling with increasing geopolitical complexities, and businesses must respond accordingly. Tensions have spilled over into export, import and investment restrictions between China, the US and its allies in the past couple of years – indeed, one of the most contentious discussions I’ve participated in recently was with European ambassadors in China, where criticisms of their hosts over policy related to Ukraine were front and centre, alongside trade barriers.

A potential silver lining is that if geopolitical tensions ease thanks to a peace deal with Russia, we may see a recalibration in trade dynamics, particularly between Europe and China. Europe could then demand greater investment from Chinese firms in return for market access. This could mark a shift in how global companies are treated in China, moving away from a position of growing dependency to one of more mutual interests.

What are the critical challenges businesses are facing in the near term?

Saif Malik: The geopolitical overhang remains a key source of uncertainty. However, financial institutions have outperformed expectations, particularly in Q4 of 2024, where we saw strong diversification strategies emerge. India is playing a bigger role in the global economy, with a rapidly expanding middle class – now over 400 million strong. This presents enormous growth potential, driving new demand and encouraging diversification.

Another challenge businesses face is supply chain restructuring. Many Chinese clients have started removing elements of their supply chains from traditional markets, which will have long-term implications for global trade patterns. Companies must be agile and prepared for continued shifts in global production networks.

What role will capital markets play in these changing dynamics?

Eric Robertsen: Historically, capital markets in regions like the Middle East have been viewed as sources of capital rather than to attract investment. However, this is beginning to change. We’re seeing a shift where companies in these regions are becoming destinations for investment rather than just sources of fundraising.

This trend is also reflected in sovereign wealth funds (SWFs). Traditionally, SWFs have focused on overseas investments, but we’re now seeing a pivot toward domestic economic development. Take the Public Investment Fund (PIF) in Saudi Arabia, which is playing an active role in fostering domestic industries. This is a structural change that could have long-term implications for global capital flows.

What are the biggest opportunities in 2025 and beyond?

Sir Robin Niblett: The most promising opportunity lies in how European companies can leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to drive competitiveness. Even without control over AI’s foundational models, AI has the potential to redefine European industries and boost their productivity.

Additionally, Europe is at a turning point in terms of thinking about its security and economic self-sufficiency. There’s a growing recognition that the continent must take greater responsibility for its own defence, and also that it must deepen its trade relationships with a growing Africa to form one of the largest vertical economic corridors in the world.

Isabelle Jenkins: Our CEO survey at PwC revealed some striking trends. For the first time ever in 28 years of the survey, the UK was ranked as the second-most attractive investment destination.

Another major opportunity is the tangible impact of generative AI. Businesses are already seeing AI contribute to revenue and profitability in ways that were previously theoretical. Sustainability investments are also continuing to grow, which aligns with broader global trends toward greener economies.

Saif Malik: From a banking perspective, we’re particularly optimistic about the expanding role of the Global South. With India and China as two of the most populous nations and Africa home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, the opportunities for trade and investment are immense. Our role as a financial institution is to help clients capitalize on these new trade corridors and drive long-term economic growth.

How are shifting trade corridors impacting investment decisions?

Eric Robertsen: One of the biggest challenges in capital markets today is ensuring that investment flows are balanced and sustainable. Historically, emerging markets have been vulnerable to episodes of capital flight. Investors have become focused on a concentrated number of high-profile names. However, there are promising signs that this is changing.

We’re also seeing more innovative financing structures emerge, particularly in energy and infrastructure. Private capital is playing a more significant role, with companies and sovereign wealth funds collaborating to drive long-term investments.

What does the future hold for global trade and economic resilience?

Saif Malik: Trade with China and Asia will continue to be a dominant force in shaping the global economy. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, businesses should focus on opportunities rather than just challenges. There’s a tendency to get caught up in a doom-and-gloom narrative, but if we look at the bigger picture, the fundamentals for growth and investment remain strong.

The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation. Shifting trade corridors, evolving capital markets, and geopolitical tensions present both challenges and opportunities. Businesses must be proactive in adapting to these changes, leveraging AI, sustainability investments, and new market opportunities in the Global South. While uncertainty remains, the overarching sentiment from the panel is one of cautious optimism – those who can navigate this new landscape effectively will be well-positioned for success.