Outlook 2025: Playing your Trump card
As Trump takes charge, we are bullish on US equities, Developed Market high yield bonds and gold.
Trump’s policies are likely to lead to another year of US equity and high yield bond outperformance. We also see an opportunity to switch from cash to USD bonds to lock in attractive yields. We hedge any inflation and geopolitical risks with gold.
We head into 2025 Overweight equities and gold and Underweight cash in Foundation portfolios. The US is likely to be in the driver’s seat, outperforming other major markets, as business and consumer confidence gets a boost following Trump’s election. Trump’s contentious policy agenda and China’s growth outlook are key risks.
Within equities, we are Overweight the US and Underweight the Euro area, with supportive US policy likely to maintain US outperformance. In Asia, we are Overweight Indian equities given still-robust growth outlook.
Within bonds, we are Overweight Developed Market High Yield bonds as the higher yield drives total returns. Emerging Market local currency bonds are most at risk from Trump’s tariff proposals, keeping us Underweight. We would also switch from cash to USD bonds to lock in attractive yields over the longer term.
Tactical opportunities: We see tactical opportunities in selective US, China and India equity sectors. Bond opportunistic ideas continue to look for pockets of value amid elevated valuations.
