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FX Market Hub

Grasp the latest FX movements on-the-go
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Check it out and see our views on how FX trends move.

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11 November 2024

USD/CNH rose after the NPC briefing

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    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

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    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

11 November 2024

USD/CNH rose after the NPC briefing

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4 November 2024

We are modestly bullish on the USD

Visit our Online FX Platform now and trade anywhere 24/7!

  • TRADE NOW TRADE NOW

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Pattern, QR Code, Stencil

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Not having an Integrated Deposit Account?
    Apply Now

    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

    Not applicable to:

    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

4 November 2024

We are modestly bullish on the USD

Latest FX News

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FX Weekly – 24 Oct 2024

100 JPY hovers around 5.09 HKD

100 JPY weakened to below 5.09 HKD for the first time since late July and is trading in oversold territory. We see a higher upside risk, especially if a BoJ intervention leads to an unwind of the yen carry trade in the near-term.

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FX Weekly – 18 Oct 2024

ECB lowered interest rates by 25bps to 3.25%

EUR/USD fell as officials flagged the worsening outlook for the wider economy. Markets are expecting at least 25bps rate cut in the December meeting. Technically, the pair is oversold and exposed to a technical rebound, with the August low of 1.0770 as support (or EUR/HKD support at 8.3620).

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We are modestly bullish on the USD, targeting 106 over the next 1-3 months. For now, we expect the USD index to rise alongside US government bond yields, especially if US economic data continue to surprise to the upside, potentially limiting further dovish actions by the Fed.
  • We believe the EUR is likely to trade around 1.07 over a 3-month horizon amid a firmer greenback and lower ECB policy rates. The GBP is also likely to face a downside bias, underpinned by BoE rate cut expectations over the next 3 months. However, the Labour government’s first budget, which ramped up borrowing for investment, should limit significant downside risks.
  • The USD/JPY is likely to consolidate around 155 in the near term, though political uncertainty could weigh.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

FX Deep Dive

Currency: USD, GBP, JPY, AUD, EUR, NZD, CAD, CHF. CNY

USD

3m forecast: 106

12m forecast: 99.0

The bullish case:

+ Resilient US economy

+ Safe-haven demand

The bearish case:

– The Fed potential rate cut

GBP

3m forecast: 1.26 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.34 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ The Labour government’s first budget ramped up borrowing for investment

The bearish case:

– BoE rate cut expectations

JPY

3m forecast: 155 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 135 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ BoJ’s rate hike

+ Surge in QT size

The bearish case:

– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy

– Political uncertainty

AUD

3m forecast: 0.67 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.66 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ RBA holds rates higher for longer relative to US

The bearish case:

– China’s modest recovery

– Capped commodities

EUR

3m forecast: 1.07 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.13 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ oversold recently

The bearish case:

– A firmer greenback

– Lower ECB policy rates

NZD

3m forecast: 0.58 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.59 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+ RBNZ holds rates higher for longer relative to US

The bearish case:

– RBNZ rate cut pressure

CAD

3m forecast: 1.39 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.39 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ Canada housing market rebound

The bearish case:

– BoC cuts rates

– Lower oil prices

CHF

3m forecast: 0.86 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.82 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

+ Intervention risk

The bearish case:

– SNB cut rates again

CNY

3m forecast: 7.20 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 7.30 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China fiscal stimulus

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavorable rate differentials

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Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

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  • Foreign exchange involves risks. Fluctuation in the exchange rate of a foreign currency may result in gains or significant losses in the event that the customer converts deposit from the foreign currency to another currency (including Hong Kong Dollar).

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  • Renminbi (“”RMB””) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
  • RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions specified by the Bank and regulatory requirements applicable from time to time. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
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Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
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