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30 March 2026

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasing short-term demand for the USD

Visit our Online FX Platform now and trade anywhere 24/7!

  • TRADE NOW TRADE NOW

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Pattern, QR Code, Stencil

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Not having an Integrated Deposit Account?
    Apply Now

    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

    Not applicable to:

    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

30 March 2026

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasing short-term demand for the USD

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23 March 2026

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasing short-term demand for the USD

Visit our Online FX Platform now and trade anywhere 24/7!

  • TRADE NOW TRADE NOW

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Pattern, QR Code, Stencil

    Trade now via SC Mobile App

    For new and existing clients

    Not having an Integrated Deposit Account?
    Apply Now

    How do you want to apply for Integrated Deposits Account?

    *Only applicable to new Standard Chartered banking customers who do not hold any current or savings account with us. For existing customers, please login to Online Banking or visit the branch for account opening.

    Download SC Mobile, save a trip to the branch

    SC Mobile app download - QR Code

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google play is a trademark of Google Inc.

    Click here to learn more about Mobile Account Opening.

    Not applicable to:

    Cheque book service, products/services/applications that require handwritten signature are not applicable to account opened via SC Mobile App.

23 March 2026

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasing short-term demand for the USD

Latest FX News

Hk fx eur pn

FX Weekly – 1 Apr 2026

【Upside Potential in EUR】The Middle East conflict has pushed up the Eurozone inflation

Euro area preliminary consumer inflation rose to 2.5% y/y in March. ECB Governing Council member said it’s likely that borrowing costs will have to be increased over the coming quarters due to the inflationary effect of the Middle East conflict. EUR/HKD rebounded to 9.0 and is likely to test 9.14 (EUR/USD: 1.1680).

Hk fx gbp pn

FX Weekly – 31 Mar 2026

【Bearish GBP】Soaring oil prices may weigh on the UK’s growth prospects

The UK imports over 40% of its energy needs. The spike in oil and gas prices has put UK cost of living pressure under the spotlight. GBP/HKD has lost over 2% in March. Amid concerns around growth and consumption, we see GBP/HKD testing support at 10.25 (GBP/USD: 1.3080).

FX at a glance

Key FX Highlights

  • We have revised our three-month forecast for the DXY, raising it from 96 to 100 to reflect increased demand for the USD amid heightened global uncertainty.
  • The recent Middle East escalation has significantly intensified geopolitical risks, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. The disruptions in energy markets and mounting concerns about economic stability have strengthened the USD’s position and contributed to a more cautious global outlook.
  • Meanwhile, the USD is benefiting from improved terms of trade because of higher oil prices. Although US economic data has softened, the Middle East conflict has exerted a more pronounced influence on markets in the near term. Considering these developments, market expectations for Fed rate cuts have now been postponed.
  • However, we continue to anticipate a resumption of USD weakness over a 12-month horizon, with the DXY expected to return towards 96. We believe the USD will depreciate once tensions surrounding the Middle East conflict ease, as it is unlikely to be prolonged.

For more details, you may download our latest Global Market Outlook.

 

As of 2 Apr 2026

FX Deep Dive

Currency: USD, GBP, JPY, AUD, EUR, NZD, CAD, CHF. CNY

USD

3m forecast: 100

12m forecast: 96

The bullish case:

+ Middle East conflict pushes up oil prices

+ Safe-haven demand

The bearish case:

– The Fed’s further rate cut

– Weak US labour market

–Rising policy uncertainty

GBP

3m forecast: 1.32 (GBP/USD)

12m forecast: 1.30 (GBP/USD)

The bullish case:

+ USD weakness

The bearish case:

– Energy price spike has put UK cost of living pressure
– Concerns around growth and consumption

JPY

3m forecast: 160 (USD/JPY)

12m forecast: 152 (USD/JPY)

The bullish case:

+ BoJ’s expected rate hike

+ Expected Fed rate cuts

The bearish case:

– Delay in BoJ restrictive monetary policy
– Japan’s reliance on crude oil imports from the Middle East

AUD

3m forecast: 0.73 (AUD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.75 (AUD/USD)

The bullish case:
+ RBA raised its policy rate
+ Lead other major central banks in the pace of its rate hikes

The bearish case:

– China’s modest recovery

EUR

3m forecast: 1.14 (EUR/USD)

12m forecast: 1.20 (EUR/USD)

The bullish case:

+ Expected pause in monetary policy easing
+ The inflationary effect of the Middle East conflict

The bearish case:

– Uncertainties around the Middle East conflict

NZD

3m forecast: 0.60 (NZD/USD)

12m forecast: 0.61 (NZD/USD)

The bullish case:

+  GDP exceeded expectations

The bearish case:

– A final 25bps cut expectation by H1 26.

CAD

3m forecast: 1.35 (USD/CAD)

12m forecast: 1.34 (USD/CAD)

The bullish case:

+ High oil prices to support the CAD

The bearish case:

– Labour market weakness continues

CHF

3m forecast: 0.76 (USD/CHF)

12m forecast: 0.74 (USD/CHF)

The bullish case:

+ Sale of FX reserves

+ Intervention risk
+ The reduction in reciprocal tariffs

The bearish case:

– Easing safe-haven demand

CNY

3m forecast: 6.80 (USD/CNY)

12m forecast: 6.75 (USD/CNY)

The bullish case:

+ China fiscal stimulus

+ Easing trade tensions

The bearish case:

– Geopolitics

– Unfavorable rate differentials

– Modest economic recovery

Disclaimers

Important Note of Investment Products

Premium deposit, Equity Linked Investments and structured notes are structured products involving derivatives. Investment Fund is an investment product and some Investment Funds would involve derivatives. The investment decision is yours but you should not invest in that investment product unless the intermediary who sells it to you has explained to you that the product is suitable for you having regard to your financial situation, investment experience and investment objectives.

Risk Disclosure Statement

  • Investment involves risks. The prices of investment products fluctuate, sometimes dramatically and the worst case may result in loss of your entire investment amount. Past performance is no guide to its future performance.
  • Investors should read the terms and conditions contained in the relevant offering documents and in particular the investment policies and the risk factors and latest financial results information carefully and are advised to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision.
  • Investors should consider their own investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and risk tolerance level.

Foreign Exchange:

  • Foreign exchange involves risks. Fluctuation in the exchange rate of a foreign currency may result in gains or significant losses in the event that the customer converts deposit from the foreign currency to another currency (including Hong Kong Dollar).

RMB Deposit Service:

  • Renminbi (“”RMB””) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
  • RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions specified by the Bank and regulatory requirements applicable from time to time. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Disclaimer and Important Notes of Insurance

  • This webpage is intended to be valid in Hong Kong only and shall not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy or provision of any insurance product outside Hong Kong. Prudential and Standard Chartered do not offer or sell any insurance product in any jurisdictions outside Hong Kong in which such offering or sale of the insurance product is illegal under the laws of such jurisdictions. This webpage does not constitute a contract of insurance or an offer, invitations or recommendation to any person to enter into any contract of insurance or any transaction described therein or any similar transaction.
  • The material and information contained on this webpage should be read in conjunction with the relevant product brochure and for the risk disclosure, please refer to the product brochure.

Notes

  • This webpage does not constitute any prediction of likely future price movements.
  • Investors should not make investment decisions based on this webpage alone.
  • This webpage has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission or any regulatory authority in Hong Kong.

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