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House Views across asset classes
Overweight
Underweight
Neutral
AS AT 13 DECEMBER 2024
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Equity
  • North America
  • Europe ex-UK
  • United Kingdom (UK)
  • Japan
  • Asia ex-Japan
Bonds
  • DM IG Government bonds
  • DM IG Corporate bonds
  • DM HY Corporate bonds
  • EM USD Government bonds
  • EM LCY Government bonds
  • Asia USD bonds
Commodities
  • Crude Oil
  • Gold
Alternatives
    Multi-Asset
      Equity – at a glance
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      We are upgrading global equities to Overweight and expect them to outperform bonds and cash. US equities are the catalysts for the upgrade. We remain Overweight US equitiesas likely expansionary policies following recent elections, such as potential tax cuts and deregulation, add fresh impetus for US companies, on top of accelerating earnings growth.

      We are Underweight Europe ex-UK equities amid a deteriorating earnings outlook and Trump’s threat of tariffs, despite cheap valuations. We see UK equities as a core holding (Neutral) with an attractive dividend yield and valuation discount. UK equities offer a defensive sector composition, but the lack of growth sectors could limit outperformance.

      Japan equities are a core holding (Neutral). We are encouraged by improving share buybacks and the reflationary environment, although they remain vulnerable to swings in the yen carry trade. Asia ex-Japan equities are a core holding (Neutral). The region’s projected EPS growth remains elevated at 12.5% in 2025. China, facing deflationary pressures, is likely to try and offset US import curbs with higher exports to non-US markets and increased stimulus to boost domestic demand.

      North America equities - Preferred holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      

      The Bullish Case:
      + Strong earnings growth
      + Supportive US policy
      The Bearish Case:
      - Valuations, sensitivity to higher yields
      Europe ex-UK equities – Less Preferred holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      

      The Bullish Case:
      + Inexpensive relative valuations
      The Bearish Case:
      - Still-weak growth outlook
      - US trade policy risks
      UK equities - Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive valuations
      + Dividend yield
      The Bearish Case:
      - Stagflation risks
      - US trade policy risks
      Japan Equities - Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + Reasonable valuations
      + Rising dividends/share buybacks
      The Bearish Case:
      - JPY strength
      Asia ex-Japan equities - Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + Earnings
      + India growth
      + China policy support
      The Bearish Case:
      - China structural growth concerns
      Bonds – at a glance
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      We view global bonds as a core holding. Concerns over the US fiscal deficit after a Republican sweep in the US elections and a strong job market lifted long-term US bond yields in November. However, likely Fed rate cuts and contained inflation under our base macro scenario should help cap bond yields. We see an opportunity to lock in attractive income at current yields.

      Developed Market (DM) Investment Grade (IG) government bonds are a core holding (Neutral). Both nominal and real yields are attractive from a historical perspective. Our 12-month target for the US 10-year government bond yield is 4.00-4.25%. DM IG corporate bonds are a core holding (Neutral). Tight yield premiums illustrate high valuations, but we see these supported by solid fundamentals and continued inflows. We are Overweight DM High Yield (HY) corporate bonds. Historical solid performance in soft-or-no-landing scenarios, potential deregulatory policies in the US and lower policy rates are supportive.

      Emerging Market (EM) USD government bonds and Asia USD bonds are core holdings (Neutral). Yields are attractive, but potential US protectionism is unfavourable. In Asia, we prefer HY over IG bonds given their domestic exposure and likely support from China stimulus. We are Underweight EM local currency government bonds given potential FX and geopolitical risks.

      Developed Market Investment Grade government bonds – Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Attractive yields
      The Bearish Case:
      - High sensitivity to inflation, monetary policy
      Developed Market Investment Grade corporate bonds – Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + High credit quality
      + Sensitive to falling yields
      The Bearish Case:
      - Elevated valuations
      Developed Market High Yield corporate bonds – Preferred holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      + Attractive yield
      + Low rate sensitivity
      The Bearish Case:
      - Elevated valuations
      - Sensitive to growth
      Emerging Market USD government bonds – Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + Attractive yield
      + Sensitive to US rates
      The Bearish Case:
      - EM credit quality
      - US trade policy risks
      Emerging Market Local currency government bonds - Less Preferred holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      + Attractive yield
      The Bearish Case:
      - Sensitivity to USD strength
      - US trade policy risks
      Asia USD bonds - Core holding
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      

      The Bullish Case:
      + Moderate yield
      + Low volatility
      The Bearish Case:
      - Elevated IG valuations
      Commodities – at a glance
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      We expect gold to rise to USD 2,900/oz over the next 12 months and hold an Overweight view on the precious metal relative to other major asset classes. Continued robust demand from central banks remains a key driver of our view. While this may have slowed to some degree in late 2024 because of a sharp rise in gold prices (which indicates central banks are not entirely price-insensitive), we expect demand to rebound on pullbacks in the gold price. Lower bond yields or safe-haven demand are likely to pose upside risks to prices, while reduced geopolitical risks or rising bond yields would pose downside risks.

      Prices are likely to rise more modestly towards USD 2,750/oz over the next 1-3 months. In the near term, we expect gold to continue recovering gradually from oversold levels following the October-November 2024 pullback. Gold’s recovery is likely to be aided by easing US bond yields as markets seek reassurance that Trump’s policies are likely to be less inflationary than previously expected following the nomination of Wall Street veteran and fiscal conservative Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.

      WTI oil prices are expected to ease further to USD 65/bbl over the next 12 months. Worries about excess supply underpin our view on oil. We expect global crude oil supply to remain high relative to demand, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to retain significant spare capacity and Trump’s proposed energy policies to focus on increasing US oil and gas supply. Demand expectations remain weak, with Chinese demand being weaker than expected in 2024. On balance, this backdrop is likely to lead to surplus capacity in 2025, keeping downward pressure on prices. A significant improvement in US or China economic growth would be an upside risk, while any shift in OPEC+ output policy towards defending market share is a downside risk.

      WTI oil is likely to rebound towards USD 70/bbl over the next 1-3 months. A continued rebound in investor positioning away from bearish extremes is likely to offer short-term support to oil, as would any delay in the restart of shuttered OPEC+ supplies.

      Gold
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      

      The Bullish Case:
      + Continued central bank demand
      + Lower US bond yields
      + Safe-haven demand
      The Bearish Case:
      - Rise in real bond yields
      - Strong risk-on environment
      Oil
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      

      The Bullish Case:
      + No-landing leads to strong rebound in demand
      + Geopolitical event reduces global supply
      The Bearish Case:
      - Sharp rise in US output
      - OPEC+ focuses on market share, boosts output
      - Weak China demand
      Alternatives – at a glance
      13 DECEMBER 2024
      The Bullish Case:
      + Diversifier characteristics
      The Bearish Case:
      - Equity, corporate bond volatility
      Multi-Asset – at a glance
      13 DECEMBER 2024

      Our Multi-asset income (MAI) strategy has delivered 7.8% returns year-to-date, supported by our core allocations to the US, Europe and Asia dividend equities, and covered calls, given the strong returns from equity markets. Elsewhere, fixed income components generally added positively to the strategy returns, with Developed Market (DM) High Yield (HY) and Emerging Market (EM) hard currency bonds being the stronger contributors. EM local currency bonds had a more challenging 2024 due to USD strength. Looking ahead, we continue with our tilt towards sub-financials over DM HY bonds, while we prefer taking risk through global dividend equities rather than covered calls. We have also adjusted our MAI strategic allocations – increasing allocations in fixed income and introducing global equities into the mix.

      Yields on offer across income assets are likely to fall slightly in 2025 as central banks continue to cut rates. To preserve income streams and maintain returns in a falling rates environment, investors can consider reallocating into assets with higher yields, mitigating reinvestment risks. A diversified MAI strategy offers a comprehensive approach to maintain high income and returns in a falling rates environment.

      Although income strategies prioritise generating a steady cash flow, it is important to adopt a total returns approach. Reinvesting dividends and interest rather than withdrawing them can significantly enhance long-term returns by combining income with capital appreciation. This holistic view is critical for sustaining wealth over time.

      FX views (12-month outlook)
      • USD
      • EUR
      • JPY
      • GBP
      • AUD
      • ASIA EX-JAPAN
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      The bullish case:
      + US fundamentals surprise on the upside
      The bearish case:
      – Dovish Fed, expensive valuation
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      The bullish case:
      + ECB unlikely to cut rate aggressively
      The bearish case:
      – Slower growth relative to US
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      The bullish case:
      + BoJ policy normalisation pace is slow
      The bearish case:
      – Further BoJ rate hikes, surge in QT size
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      The bullish case:
      + BoE cautious approach amid inflation uptick
      The bearish case:
      – Recession risk, consumption weakness
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      The bullish case:
      + RBA holds rates for longer, strong gold prices
      The bearish case:
      – China’s modest recovery
      27 SEPTEMBER 2024
      USD/SGD
      The bullish case:
      + SGD vulnerable to weak global growth
      + Revaluation of S$NEER

      The bearish case:
      – Resilient domestic growth
      – CNH’s rebound

      USD/INR
      The bullish case:
      + RBI to continue to absorb capital inflows
      + Further strengthening in FX reserves

      The bearish case:
      – Lower oil price to ease current account deficit
      – Strong growth; inflows

      USD/MYR
      The bullish case:
      + BNM is likely to reduce its record-high forward sales
      + Replenish FX reserves

      The bearish case:
      – Reversal in local dollarization trends
      – Resilient GDP growth

      USD/KRW
      The bullish case:
      + Vulnerability to global growth and trade
      + Reliance on USD and CNH trend

      The bearish case:
      – Export growth and tourism inflows
      – Cheap value; inflows

      Videos
      Global Market Outlook November 2024 - Balancing election risks with soft-landing prospects
      Financial markets have thus far been unfazed by US election risks. We continue to believe elections can create opportunities amid short-term volatility, but our soft-landing macro view points to medium-term outperformance of risk assets.
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