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Hk wealth gmo deepdive foundation portfolio

Wealth Guru

Your one-stop-shop hub for all market updates you need to know

Market Insights brought to you by our CIO

Where will the financial markets head towards? Check out how our Chief Investment Office (CIO) sees it.

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2025 Global Market Outlook: Foreign Exchange

  • Tariff-related uncertainty is likely to support safe-haven currencies, particularly the JPY, in Q1: The JPY stands out as the only G10 currency to strengthen against the dollar this year. This partly reflects the BoJ’s rate hike expectations, while other major central banks cut rates. We expect the JPY’s strength to be more pronounced against non-USD currencies.
  • US-related trade risks facing Europe and ECB rate cuts: With Europe potentially being the next target of US tariffs, any tariff announcement could drive EUR/USD towards parity.
  • UK government debt stress: The retreat of UK gilts since mid-January and the tax rise are likely to alleviate the UK government debt stress. We expect to see some fiscal stability, which will support the GBP in the coming months.
  • Rising volatility: US tariff and policy rates may increase volatility in the currency market. Whether for travel, overseas education, real estate investment, or broader investment strategies, capitalising on foreign exchange opportunities can yield significant benefits!

For full market outlook insights, read our latest GMO Report now.

2025 Global Market Outlook: Foreign Exchange

The US tariffs are likely to provide a short-term boost for the USD. However, further tariff escalation could become a headwind for the dollar as US economic growth suffers. Tariff-related uncertainty is likely to support safe-haven currencies, particularly the Japanese Yen, in Q1.

 

18 Feb 2025

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2025 Global Market Outlook: Passive Income

  • Opening gambit for trade negotiations? History shows Trump’s prior tariffs imposed in 2018 lifted short-term inflation, but hit medium-term growth. This explains why bond yields initially rose after tariffs were imposed in 2018, but then fell sharply on growth concerns.
  • We still expect the Fed to cut rates 3 times this year: The rise in the 10-year US government bond yield, initially supported by a strong jobs report, has been tempered after the release of softer than expected Producer and Consumer Prices.
  • Doing nothing leaves you trapped in low yielding cash: Cash is generally not a good place to protect against inflation. We would switch to USD bonds to lock in attractive yields over the longer term.
  • Overweight Developed Market High Yield Bonds: They are likely to benefit from Trump’s pro-growth policies. The 7.3% yield on US high yield bonds provides a sizable buffer to investors worried about negative total returns.

For full insights, read our latest 2025 Global Market Outlook report now.

2025 Global Market Outlook: Passive Income

History shows us that it is rare for cash to outperform any other asset class over 12-month or longer periods. Ongoing central bank rate cuts mean cash yields will likely continue to fall in 2025. This makes it more attractive to lock in current yields for longer via bonds.

 

4 Feb 2025

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2025 Global Market Outlook: Foundation Portfolio

  • Overweight global equities: Positive economic growth, supported by rate cuts and Trump’s policy proposals, bodes well for corporate earnings.
  • Overweight the US: Supportive US policies are likely to maintain US outperformance. In Asia, we are Overweight India equities given the still-robust growth outlook.
  • Overweight gold: Central bank demand is likely to remain a key driver of prices. Support from safe-haven demand, any inflation worries or falling bond yields would be a bonus.
  • Underweight cash: Ongoing central bank rate cuts mean cash yields will likely continue to fall in 2025.
  • Locking in yields: We expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to stay in a 4.00-4.25% range over 6-12 months. It’s still attractive to lock in current yields for longer via bonds.

For full insights, read our latest 2025 Global Market Outlook report now.

2025 Global Market Outlook: Foundation Portfolio

We head into 2025 Overweight equities and gold and Underweight cash in our Foundation portfolios. The US is likely to be in the driver’s seat, outperforming other major markets, as business and consumer confidence gets a boost following Trump’s election.

 

14 Jan 2025

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Fed flags slower pace of rate cuts

  • Slower pace of rate cuts going forward: The Fed now expects 50bps of rate cuts each in 2025 and 2026. It also raised its growth estimates for 2024-25 and inflation estimates for 2024-26.
  • Market Reaction: The S&P500 index recorded its biggest decline since August. The 10-year US government bond yield jumped to a six-month high of 4.51%, the USD surged to a 2-year high, while gold fell 2.3%.
  • Buy on dips: US equities could consolidate further. But we expect gradual rate cuts and Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deregulation to sustain US growth and earnings outperformance over the next 6-12 months.
  • S&P 500 Index: We see near-term support at 5,860, followed by 5,674. Our 12-month target is 6,650.
  • Lock in elevated yields: The jump in bond yields after the Fed meeting has made it more attractive to lock in the yields to earn long term income.

For full insights, read our latest Market Watch report now.

Fed flags slower pace of rate cuts

US equities could consolidate further with the Fed signalling a slower path for rate cuts, but the Fed’s plan to continue with rate cuts is positive for US equities. We would use this opportunity to add exposure, given that we expect earnings growth to accelerate in 2025.

 

19 Dec 2024

CIO Wealth Guru Series

Our CIO experts combine investment fun facts and market views, bring upon a series of professional yet lively short articles. Read now and become a Wealth Guru as well!

Strong Dollar Hits One-Year High

Trump’s pro-growth “America first” plan intuitively implies US assets and the Dollar outperforming non-US assets. Keep an eye on potential technical rebound for the EUR, GBP and AUD. Meanwhile, why are USD, JPY and CHF widely regarded as safe-haven currencies?

3 tactics to capitalise on rate cut early opportunities

When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaches 4%, it's a good opportunity to average into it. History suggests that entering the bond market early during a rate cut period achieves higher return. Elevate your income potential now!

Cash is no longer king?

As countries gradually cut interest rates, earning interest on cash is becoming less favourable. Discover how to boost your passive income in today’s low interest market.

Tips to earn HKD50,000 passive income

Achieve financial freedom by exploring sustainable dividend-paying investments and building passive income to live the life you envision.

News Updates

Get yourself up-to-date on what’s happening now.

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